Bitcoin isn't being used as a currency in the ordinary sense of the word, yet it's not collapsing either. I'm starting to think that the Bitcoin exchange rate is acting more like a proxy for faith in cryptocurrencies than a measure of supply, demand and utility value. It doesn't matter to those who are trading it that it doesn't function like an actual currency. Most of the cryptocurrencies that are making bona fide attempts at being useful currencies have in fact had lukewarm receptions.
During my time at that crypto startup, the main thing I learned from the successful traders there is that they don't really analyse graphs a great deal. Instead, they stay on top of the crypto news cycle and the latest gossip. I actually made money from simply overhearing their talk, because they were so deeply in tune with it all. Had I bet like a madman on Bitcoin in early 2017, I would've multiplied my investments. But who could've known? They did, but they sounded crazy at the time.
@artsyhonker It's not quite gambling either, because Bitcoin itself serves as a sort of reserve currency for crypto, much like the US Dollar does for fiat currencies. Most cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin are traded by people who already hold Bitcoin. This creates demand for Bitcoin as an intermediary or gateway to the cryptoeconomy.
@artsyhonker The gambling analogy is fine, but the odds are often much better than for gambling. It's possible to invest in such a way that you're not losing money, but simply riding the general trend. Right now is probably a good time to buy Bitcoin, for example, because we've just had a bubble, and the rates aren't too far away from what the law of compound interest would suggest they should be.
@thor It's better understood as gambling than trading, I think.
But I think the same is true of e.g. derivatives trading.